Could CO2 Emissions See a Surge in 2023?

Introduction

As the world is recovering from the global pandemic, 2023 is witnessing a significant uptick in driving distances. With the restrictions on mobility lifted, the roads are busier than ever. Remote work, once the norm during the peak of the pandemic, is now a subject of much debate. Many companies are reversing their work-from-home policies, leading to a resurgence in commuting and consequently, more miles traveled. But the increase in driving is not the only contributing factor to a possible rise in CO2 emissions; there’s another, often overlooked, aspect - the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure, commonly known as WLTP.

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Understanding WLTP and Its Ramifications

WLTP is a globally harmonized standard used for assessing a vehicle’s fuel consumption and emissions. Introduced as a replacement for the somewhat outdated New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), WLTP aims to offer more reliable, realistic, and accurate data concerning a vehicle's environmental impact. The European Union first incorporated WLTP for new car models in September 2017, extending its mandate to all new cars sold in the EU by September 2018. Other nations, such as China and Japan, are following suit by either adopting or planning to implement WLTP.

Since its launch, data recorded under WLTP from 2019 onwards has shown an increase of between 10% to 20%. In 2023, this trend is exacerbated due to various factors such as vehicle supply shortages triggered by the pandemic and the periodic renewal of 48-month vehicle lease contracts. This shift from NEDC to WLTP-based vehicles has resulted in higher apparent CO2 emissions, especially for companies that rely on vehicle specs for their emission calculations. Even fleet data, compiled from approximately 40,000 vehicles across the European Union, is corroborating an upward trend in CO2 specifications.

Forecasting the Surge

Taking into account all these dynamic elements, the projected emissions for the fiscal year 2023 could witness a remarkable escalation. Estimates suggest an increase ranging from 15% to 30%. Numerous companies have been proactively adopting sustainable vehicular alternatives like Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) to mitigate CO2 emissions. However, the rate at which these sustainable alternatives are being adopted may not suffice to counterbalance the anticipated increase in emissions for 2023.

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Future Risks and Inconsistencies

The adoption of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) poses a new set of challenges, particularly for companies that rely on vehicle specifications for their CO2 emissions calculations. Many of these companies consider PHEVs to emit between 30g/km to 70g/km and BEVs as zero-emitters, based on WLTP metrics. However, these figures can be highly misleading when recalibrated using actual fuel consumption and Electricity Emission Factors (EFs) from each country, which account for the mix of renewable and non-renewable electricity sources.

For instance, when recalibrated, PHEVs may actually emit between 80g/km to 200g/km, and BEVs could vary between 1g/km to 140g/km, depending on the country's renewable electricity mix. Without a clear understanding of emissions from electricity generation, any claimed reductions in CO2 emissions may be illusory. This creates a potential need to retroactively recalculate emissions, posing a significant risk to companies that rely on vehicle specifications for their emission reports.

Furthermore, the WLTP measurements for PHEVs—usually between 30g/km and 70g/km—are based on an idealized ratio of fuel to electricity use that does not include emissions from electricity consumption. This ratio assumes approximately 30% of the total distance is covered using fuel and 70% with electricity. However, various studies indicate that the real-world ratio often diverges significantly, ranging from 50-75% fuel use to 25-50% electricity use. These discrepancies hint at a potential change in the WLTP testing methodology for PHEVs, possibly post-2027.

Additionally, there is emerging evidence that companies calculating emissions based solely on fuel consumption may find that the introduction of PHEVs has not actually led to any measurable reduction in their carbon footprint.

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The Real-World Usage of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles for Corporate Fleets

Corporate fleets using PHEVs may face challenges in emissions calculations. Real-world data varies significantly from WLTP standards, impacting overall CO2 emissions. Here's what fleet managers must consider.

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Potential Solutions for Addressing the Challenges

Calculate from Actual Fuel and Electricity Consumption:

By relying on real-world consumption data, many of the inaccuracies arising from theoretical WLTP or hybrid vehicle metrics can be bypassed. However, this approach has its own operational challenges, such as the need to collect consistent and comprehensive data across different countries, including those with limited data infrastructure.

Use Real Fuel Economy and Distance for Calculations:

Similar to the first solution but more granular, this method entails collecting data on each vehicle’s actual fuel efficiency and distance traveled. These metrics would then be used for a more accurate calculation of CO2e emissions. However, obtaining reliable data remains a challenge, particularly in nations with less robust data-collection systems. For this, companies like Scopes Data can offer valuable assistance in data acquisition.

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The Power of Accurate Emissions Reporting

Discover how accurate emissions reporting can help businesses meet sustainability goals, reduce costs, and improve their reputation. Learn about the role of Scopes Data in enhancing fleet emissions management.

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Conclusion

As 2023 looms with the potential for a considerable surge in CO2 emissions, it becomes imperative to delve into the nuances of various contributing factors like WLTP and the real-world implications of different types of vehicles. Companies armed with accurate data and a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks and solutions are better positioned to navigate these complex challenges. This, in turn, will pave the way for more effective and targeted strategies for achieving long-term sustainability.

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